News & Publications
February 20, 2024 |
How reliable are price predictions?
The 2024 U.S. growing season is likely to bring surprises and opportunities. A review of the corn market since 2004 reveals how quickly price perception and trends can change, emphasizing the unpredictability of prices. To manage market volatility, a disciplined approach that establishes a floor price while allowing flexibility to participate in market rallies is a sound risk management strategy.
Over the past few months, I have presented at outlook meetings in various areas around the country. It was good to be "back on the road," as I always enjoy visiting with producers and learning about their operations. Each year, we share a brief outlook on markets along with Advance Trading’s risk management philosophy. While going through my files, I came across the slides below that were previously presented by one of our advisors. After updating the overview with what occurred in 2023, it re-emphasized the difficulty—in fact, impossibility—of predicting prices.
